Monthly Real Estate Statistics, Market Commentary and Yearly Trends for Middlesex County, New Jersey
Those Middlesex County NJ real estate statistics include residential one family only. They do not include townhouses, condos, co-ops, multi-family, commercial properties, etc...This page is updated every second week of the month. Data source is from the Middlesex County Multi Listing System (MLS) and is the basis for our Middlesex County NJ market commentary. Please read our Disclaimer.
1. Middlesex County NJ Real Estate Statistics - January 2013
|Middlesex County Real Estate Statistics||January 2013*||December 2012**||January 2012***||January 2013/ December 2012 (%)||January 2013/ January 2012 (%)|
|Buyers per 100 Sellers||15 per 100||10 per 100||10 per 100||50.0%||50.0%|
|New Homes Listed||528||284||575||85.9%||-8.2%|
|Median Sold Price (MSP)||$265,000||$285,000||$259,250||-7.0%||2.2%|
|Average Sold Price (ASP)||$307,172||$315,258||$306,403||-2.6%||0.3%|
|Sold Price/Asking Price (SP/AP)||94.01%||94.19%||93.87%||-0.2%||0.1%|
|Days on Market (DOM)||102||95||102||7.4%||0.0%|
|Days of Inventory (DOI) or Absorption Rate||244||173||394||41.1%||-38.1%|
Middlesex County Real Estate Statistics Calculated on Friday *02/15/2013 **Friday 01/18/2013 ***February 2012
2. Middlesex County NJ Market Commentary - January 2013
Reporting period: January 2013
Source data is from the prof. Middlesex County Multiple Listing System database.
Calculated on Friday 02/15/2013.
Only includes residential homes within Middlesex County NJ (do not include condos, townhouses, adult commun., commerc. ...).
Please read our Disclaimer.
Most experts are now agreeing that 2011-2012 have become the bottom years for the long down trend since 2007 and we are clearly now on the road to Real Estate recovery. Real estate is local and not all local markets are reacting and trending identically over the same period of time. Also various segments of the market typically behave differently (i.e rentals versus purchase, new construction versus existing homes, single family versus multiple dwellings, etc…). See at the bottom of this page our yearly update and graphs.
The Active Inventory also called current supply or unsold homes as tracked in the Middlesex County Multiple Listing System (MLS).
The Active Inventory as we follow it (Active homes for sale not under contract and not under attorney reviews) in January has decreased drastically -26.4 % versus last year to 1833 homes for sale in Middlesex County NJ and keeps on decreasing from the previous last year high (decreased last 10 months in a row). It has also decreased versus last month -1.0% which continues to be the big story…This number is only for residential single family homes in Middlesex County NJ and does not include condos, townhouses, multi dwellings, adult community, commercial real estate, etc…Also it does not include for sale by owners. It does not include either any type of Shadow Inventory. The inventory keeping on decreasing is good news and has been the trend for the last few months. The extra inventory/supply that we have been carrying over in the last few years is now shrinking to set the game for a more balanced market between Buyers and Sellers.
Please note that we have changed last year the stand of the Real Estate Barometer based on the trend of those statistics and how they typically affect the market from a Strong Buyer’s Market to a Buyer’s Market.
We still see our current and local markets to be a good market for Buyers but with much less choices out there than 1 to 2 year ago.
From a seasonal Inventory perspective, typically winter months have a lower inventory due to the seasonal effect and holidays (i.e many home sellers take their homes off the market during the winter/holiday season and wait for the spring market to relist, etc…) and the inventory rising with the spring market.
The shadow inventory is mostly made of foreclosed homes not yet listed on the market and also includes more subtle different types such as the “Accidental Landlords” and the folks who put their plans to move (retirement, etc…) on a temporary hold waiting for the market to rise again to their price target.…
Number of homes under contract, not including homes under Attorney Review. Pending Sales because they are captured 1 to 2 months in average prior the final Sold time stamp they do offer a more timely view of the market.
For the month of January we had 271 homes coming under contract (as tracked in the Middlesex County MLS). It is much higher than last month and higher versus last year (52.2% and 11.1% respectively). There is typically a correlation between home prices and number of sales. Last year has shown a substantial increase in pending sales showing that buyers who have been on the fence for the last few years have starting to pull the trigger. More sales are as well helping in decreasing the current inventory. However there is a seasonal effect in our industry and in this part of the country. Typically during winter months especially around the holidays we are seeing a decrease in overall market activity.
Buyers per 100 Sellers
This represents the number of buyers per 100 sellers. It is calculated using the Active Inventory and the Pending Sales. For the reported period (January 2013) we had 15 buyers for every 100 home sellers in Middlesex County, NJ which is a drastic increase versus the previous month and versus last year. Buyers are back and are now realizing that the optimum time to buy might have been in 2011-2012 when Inventory was higher. This is the highest number of buyers per 100 sellers we have seen since we are tracking this statistics.
New Homes Listed
For Middlesex County NJ, the number of new homes listed in January has increased versus new homes listed in December (85.9%) (528 new homes listed in Middlesex County). However Year over Year it has decreased -8.2%. This decrease in new homes listed is helping as well to decrease the overall active Inventory, creating a more balanced market.
Number of Sold Homes
In January, the number of sold homes was 233 and represents a decrease -29.8% versus last month but an increase 18.9% versus last year. One thing to remember is that this specific statistic by its nature looks at the sales activities from 2-3 months back. The Pending Sales is a timelier statistic in term of market activity and show an increase in activity with a substantial pick up in Pending Sales (Current Sales) since last year. This specific statistic is also confirming that buyers have been back for a while.
Median Sold Price and Average Sold price
The average (mean) sold price for January ($307,172) is lower versus last month and essentially flat year over year (0.3%).
The median sold price ($265,000) has also decreased versus last month (seasonal behavior) but increased versus last year (-7.0% and 2.2% respectively). Will 2011/2012 years be the bottom years from a home price perspective? Many experts are saying so. Do not forget that real estate is hyper local and we are currently seeing specific neighborhoods and zip codes with an average price for 2012 higher than 2011. See below for the number of Homes Sold per price range. Which provides further insight in understanding changes in the Average Sold price:
|$1 - $99,999||9|
|$100,000 - $199,999||37|
|$200,000 - $299,999||89|
|$300,000 - $399,999||52|
|$400,000 - $499,999||20|
|$500,000 - $599,999||15|
|$600,000 - $699,999||8|
|$700,000 - $799,999||1|
|$800,000 - $899,999||1|
|$900,000 - $999,999||1|
|$1,000,000 - $1,999,999||1|
|$2,000,000 - $2,999,999||0|
|$3,000,000 - $3,999,999||0|
|$4,000,000 - $4,999,999||0|
|$5,000,000 or over||0|
Sold Price / Asking Price (SP/AP) Ratio
SP/AP ratio is 94.01% which decreased versus December and increased versus last year. This statistic is very important to understand the dominant forces (ie Buyers & Sellers) within the markets and who is getting the upper hand. In average, sellers are negotiating and accepting offers at 94.01% off their last asking price. Please note that I mentioned "last asking price" and not "original asking price" which is very different and could take a few price reductions for sellers to get to a correct market price level generating Showings if pricing is not properly set from the start.
To put this number in perspective, the 92% range is one of the lowest ranges we have witnessed since the beginning of the down trend in 2006/2007. The increase to 94-95% range also shows the trend reversal to a more balanced market between buyers and sellers.
At the end the Sale of a home should really be considered a business transaction and as such the various business decisions such as pricing be made in a knowledgeable fashion based on current and local data and not emotions or unreliable data.
Days on Market (DOM)
Another real estate statistic is Days on Market or DOM which has increased to 102 days versus last month and is flat versus last year. A word of caution with this indicator as it is NOT a cumulative DOM within the Middlesex County MLS. Meaning the clock re-starts with any new listing contract for the same home. Thus this statistic does not indicate to home sellers the average time on the market before going under contract. This is a good example of the better value of looking at those statistics, which is more in the trend analysis and local markets comparison than in a specific number at a specific given time taken for face value. I hope I am making sense here.
Days of Inventory (DOI) or Absorption Rate
Days of Inventory (DOI) which is a derived number of the Active Inventory and Sold Homes has increased. At 244 days, it means it would take about 8 months to sell all existing inventory with no additional inventory coming on the market. A market with over 6 months’ supply would usually qualify as a buyer's market. A market with less than 6 months of supply would usually qualify as a seller's market. DOI does not take into consideration the NJ shadow inventory. DOI has consistently decreased and also confirms the trend direction to a more neutral/balanced market.
That’s the end of our local market commentary based on Middlesex County NJ real estate statistics. As always, contact me if any questions or if you are thinking about buying or selling your house.
Cathy Chaudemanche Team, Friday 02/15/2013
In real estate as in business, what you don’t know can cost you! Whether you are selling your home, a first time home buyer or a seasoned investor, I can help you by providing you with the knowledge and facts you need to make sound decisions in our current and local markets. Read what others have to say, then when you are ready contact me-
Please read our disclaimer
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3. Middlesex County Real Estate Video - January 2012
4. Middlesex County NJ Real Estate Stats -Yearly Trending
2012 – Yearly review.
Statistics are from the Middlesex County Multiple Listings System (MLS) and include all geographic markets in Middlesex County and all types of single family residential homes only
(i.e 2 bedroom house, 3 bedroom house, etc…). Please read our Disclaimer.
Most experts are agreeing that 2011-2012 have become the bottom years for the 6 years long down trend and we are now on the road to Real Estate recovery.
Real estate is local and not all local markets are reacting and trending identically over the same period of time.
Also various segments of the market typically behave differently (i.e rentals versus purchase, new construction versus existing homes, single family versus multiple dwellings, etc…).
In our opinion Middlesex County, NJ is following the national Real Estate trend
We have changed the Real Estate Barometer last year (July 2012) from a “Strong Buyer’s Market” to a “Buyer’s Market” after seeing the Days of Inventory or Absorption Rate decrease and other statistics we follow aligning to confirm a switch to a more balanced market.
So what were some of the highlights for 2012?
2012, especially the second half of 2012 has seen the lowest Inventory since 2006. This simply means that there are fewer homes on the market (as captured in the Middlesex County MLS).
The number of homes sold has also increased versus 2011 and 2010 meaning more people have been buying homes in 2012 in Middlesex County, NJ.
Home Prices are stabilizing, essentially flat versus 2011 both from a Mean and Median perspectives.
The Sold Price Vs Asking Price has increased versus 2011 from 93.97% to 94.35%. This statistics helps us to understand who has the upper hand (Buyers or Sellers). The higher this number and the more in control Sellers are.
At the zip code level we are seeing neighborhoods that have increased in price last year. For example Metuchen average home prices in 2012 was higher than in 2011. North Edison 2 and 3 bedrooms average homes prices were also higher in 2012 versus 2011.
Only time will tell if indeed 2011/2012 were the bottom years for our local real estate. And on our side we will keep on reporting statistical information on a monthly basis has we have done it for many years.
A few things to watch in 2013 that are going to affect our local real estate markets (not in order of importance):
1- Job creation & economic growth in New Jersey
2- Interest Rates increase (the party might be over soon...)
3- Shadow inventory, short sales and foreclosures effect locally